Oscars 101: Best Picture

In which I run down on the nominees (and likely winners) of the Academy Awards.

This is it folks, the category that you've been waiting for:  Best Picture.  This is the one that people are going to be talking about for weeks to come - which of this year's nominees can truly be called the single greatest film from 2014.  So without further ado, here are the 2014 Oscar nominees for Best Picture:

American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

I've already gone off about why Interstellar should have been nominated for Best Picture, so I won't retread that same argument here.  What does warrant particular attention, though, is Nightcrawler's glaring omission from the race.  It was without question the most seethingly intelligent take on journalistic ethics since Network and deserved far better than a single nomination for Best Original Screenplay.  How this could not be considered one of the best films from this year is completely beyond me.

American Sniper - Much has been made of American Sniper from critics on both sides of the aisle, ranging from those who would call its detractors unpatriotic to Bob Chipman assuring us that "American Sniper sucks - and it's okay to admit that."  I fall somewhere in between these two camps.  Although I initially loved it,  American Sniper is the kind of movie that fails to hold up under further scrutiny.  While exciting in the moment, it doesn't have enough narrative meat on its bones to keep me engaged upon retrospection

American Sniper's well of support will largely come from two places: the patriotic fervor of Academy voters and its blockbuster status.  It is the people's choice in the Best Picture race - the one that everybody's seen and will tune in to see how it does.  While that shouldn't be the deciding factor in crowning a Best Picture winner, it does give it an edge with ratings-conscious Academy members looking to secure the telecast's popularity for another year.

Birdman - The darling of the director's branch has perhaps the widest appeal across the various Academy branches.  It ties The Grand Budapest Hotel for most nominations at nine - including ones for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  Its broad praise and front-runner status in many races might just be enough to propel it to the lead in the night's big race.

Despite its incredible praise across so many branches of the Academy, it's safe to say that Birdman is still only second best in this race.  It will have to draw out the nostalgia vote with Keaton or the anti-blockbuster vote a bit more than it currently has if it hopes to stand up to Boyhood.

Boyhood - Richard Linklater's latest character study is undoubtedly the most likely candidate to win Best Picture at this year's Oscar ceremony.  Some have argued that Boyhood "manipulates you with nostalgia into thinking that it's a good movie" and that its decades-spanning story is "only a gimmick," but nothing could be further from the truth.  Boyhood is the most organically executed and authentic feeling film to come out of 2014.

The film is a cinematic time capsule of the Bush and Obama years through the eyes of a child growing up in a broken Texas family.  Whereas most other films would have broadened its scope to include all of the dramatically ripe moments surrounding its protagonist - such as the mother's abusive relationship with his alcoholic stepfather - Boyhood restrains itself to only the events that the child himself is cognizant of.  While it certainly draws a lot of support from its nostalgic look back over the last two decades and for its decision to shoot intermittently over a twelve year production to allow its actors to grow and age naturally with the characters that they're playing, it drives itself home by simply being one of the best films of the year.

The Grand Budapest Hotel - In a weaker year, The Grand Budapest Hotel feels like it could have been the Best Picture front runner.  It ties Birdman for the most number of nominations and will most assuredly win writer-director Wes Anderson his first Oscar.  Its broad critical acceptance is matched only by how many years Wes Anderson had to work to achieve it, making him feel overdue for an Oscar even when his other efforts ultimately seemed to be lacking.

When push comes to shove, however, The Grand Budapest Hotel's odds of winning aren't especially high.  It's probably the fourth most likely of winning, and draws from the same wells of support of its better regarded competition.  Its unique support within the writing branch will probably fail to make up the difference against the likes of Boyhood and Birdman.

The Imitation Game - This is actually Becky's favorite film from the Best Picture nominees, although even she isn't willing to bet on it actually walking away with the final prize of the evening.  And that's really a shame, because it is such an exceptional and, dare I say, important film that champions a social issue that is too often overlooked in films today.  Seriously, the last time that there was a high profile Gay Rights movie was when Brokeback Mountain was shafted for Best Picture in 2005.

Its unique subject matter and overall high quality won't translate into an Oscar, however.  The acting branch has other films that it would prefer to champion (Birdman, The Theory of Everything and the sadly overlooked Selma), as do the directing (Boyhood and Birdman) and writing (The Grand Budapest Hotel) branches.  It also lacks the overall appeal of films like Whiplash or American Sniper that keep their hopes alive despite not carrying any one branch of the Academy.

Selma - So much has been made over Selma since the Oscar nominees were announced that a win purely to silence the ludicrous accusations of racism would not be entirely out of the question at this point.  And that's really a shame, too.  Selma doubles as both one of the best and most socially important films of the year, so to have its potential Oscar legacy tarnished by the well-meaning (if misguided) #OscarsSoWhite movement is really more of a disservice to it in the long run than not being nominated for this or that specific award.

That being said, however, Selma's chances of winning are real.  It's not uncommon for the Academy to favor important films to good ones, and Ferguson has propelled this Civil Rights drama to the top of that particular pecking order.  Combine that with its allegedly racially motivated snubs in several big categories and the fact that it actually is a great film, and it could very easily upset the established front runners by the end of the night.

The Theory of Everything -  Despite being easily my least favorite of the Best Picture nominees, The Theory of Everything is a touching, well-produced biopic that avoids the schmaltz typical to its genre in favor of authentic drama and meaningful character arcs.  And even though it doesn't hold up well against its fellow nominees, it does find pockets of support in all the right places (mostly among actors and writers).

When the category was first broadened to include up to 10 nominees, one commentary theorized that Up - inoffensively good, which everybody liked and nobody hated - could draw enough wide-spread support in a race that was defined by increasingly narrow margins.  The same could be the case for The Theory of Everything: liked by most, disliked by few, and supported by just enough votes to eek out a narrow lead.  It's certainly unlikely, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

Whiplash -  Whiplash is easily the most intensely energetic movie that I saw last year: essentially the Full Metal Jacket of Jazz.  What's more is that it's incredible performances and writing have seemingly energized its fan base into an intensely loyal and passionate movement.

Whiplash tells the story of a dysfunctional creative partnership between a drum protegee and his mentor.  It starts at a near crawl, but rapidly accelerates until its in a near frenzy during its last 15-20 minutes.  This movie was what I was talking about when I mentioned how some have a large overall appeal that belies their lack of specific nominations.  With how passionate people get about this film, I wouldn't count it out of the race by any means.

Safe Bet:  Boyhood

Long Shot:  Birdman

Longer Shot:  Whiplash

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